Supply Chain Risk |

Panjiva in the News: July Trade Data

Josh Green | August 14, 2009

Earlier this week, Panjiva released data showing that the number of global manufacturers serving the U.S. market increased 7% from June to July.  Here’s a sampling of the press coverage of Panjiva’s latest analysis:

Panjiva in The New York Times: Trade Deficit Widened as Imports Rose in June

The New York Times: “In July, the number of overseas manufacturers sending shipments to the United States increased by 7 percent, according to the private firm Panjiva, which tracks shipping.”

Panjiva in BusinessWeek: More Manufacturing Shipments Hit America’s Ports in July

BusinessWeek: “International shipments to ports have been on the rise since bottoming out in February at 120,000, the lowest since Panjiva started tracking in July 2007.”

Panjiva in Supply Chain Management Review — Signs are positive but economic recovery needs time

Supply Chain Management Review / Logistics Management: “Said Green…  ‘There is no question we are still vulnerable to additional shocks.’”

July Trade Data: Reason for Optimism

Josh Green | August 11, 2009

The word from Panjiva’s research team: there was a significant uptick in trade activity during July.  Specifically, from June to July, there was a 7% increase in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market.

July Trade Data: Reason for Optimism - Panjiva

Further reason for optimism:

  • The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List declined slightly to 29%.

Pessimists, take note:

  • Seasonality — Last year, from June 2008 to July 2008, there was a 6% increase in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market, indicating that there may be a strong seasonal component to this year’s increase.
  • Vulnerability — Last year’s increase preceded the free fall in global trade that unfolded from July of 2008 through February of 2009; if we were vulnerable to shocks this time last year, we’re even more so this year.
  • Low absolute level of activity — The number of companies shipping to the U.S. is about 10% down from where we were this time last year.
  • High absolute level of risk — The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months remained steady at 40%.

Methodological notes for the data junkies:

  • Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
  • “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year.  As of the end of July, there were 86,570 significant manufacturers.
  • “Significant buyers” are companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year.  As of the end of July, there were 73,570 significant buyers.

Inconvenient Sourcing Truths

Josh Green | August 6, 2009

This weekend, word spread that a major African supplier to Gap and Levi is suspected of harming people and the environment.  According to a report in London’s Sunday Times, the Lesotho facility of Taiwan-based supplier Nien Hsing is dumping harmful chemicals into a river that serves as a source of drinking water.  It appears that Gap and Levi are moving aggressively to investigate these claims, and we’ll likely learn more in the weeks ahead about what’s going on, and who’s to blame.

In the past, incidents like these have served as catalysts for positive change.  Will it be the same this time?  Yes, particularly if the sourcing community embraces two inconvenient truths:

1) This is not an isolated problem

It will be tempting to write off this incident as one-of-a-kind.  However, if pressed, most sourcing professionals will admit that “compliance” problems are widespread in global manufacturing.  Why don’t we hear more about these problems?  Because the only people interested in exposing these problems have limited power (those physically harmed), limited attention span (the press), or limited financial resources (NGOs).

Press and NGOs tend to focus their investigative efforts on big companies, which make big targets.  But these big companies — whether motivated by a desire to make a positive difference or a desire to protect their brands — have made the most progress in addressing compliance problems.  Yes, sometimes the big companies get caught doing something wrong, but it’s a good bet that the vast majority of abuses of people and the environment are happening in the supply chains of small and medium size companies, which are not under constant scrutiny and which lack the resources to effectively monitor manufacturers around the world.

2) Technology is not keeping up with changes in the sourcing organization

The role of the sourcing organization has expanded dramatically over the last few decades.  Today’s sourcing professional has to do much more than find low-cost suppliers of goods and services; indeed, s/he has to cope with an array of risks that come with doing business across borders (political, macro-economic, environmental, ethical, legal, etc.).  Unfortunately, as the role of the sourcing professional has changed, the tools at his/her disposal have basically remained the same.  Those tools?  Middle-men (that will check out a factory on your behalf) and airplanes (that will get you to a factory in case you want to do it yourself).

Given the many technology advances of the last few decades, why do today’s sourcing professionals not have better tools for tackling their many challenges?  In particular, why are there not more effective risk-management tools for companies of all sizes?  Primarily because we have failed to recognize the dangers of pervasive global supply chain risk and, as a result, we have failed to imagine how technology can be leveraged to manage risk.

But technology, while not a cure-all, CAN be leveraged to help sourcing professionals do their increasingly complex jobs — and, in particular, manage risk.  For instance, technology can help organizations capture information from a variety of stakeholders and intelligently use this information to spot risky behavior.  More on this in future posts.  In the meantime, I would love to hear your ideas for how technology can help sourcing professionals (josh@panjiva.com).  As they say in DC these days — we must not let this crisis go to waste.

June Trade Data: Treading Water

Josh Green | July 13, 2009

The word from Panjiva’s research team: June trade data looked a lot like May trade data.  Specifically, between May and June, there was a 1% decline in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market.

Panjiva Analysis: June Trade Data

Similarly, the Panjiva Watch List numbers were unchanged:

  • The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List remains at 30%.
  • The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months remains at 40%.

What to make of these numbers?  The slight decline from May to June is slightly less than last year’s May-to-June decline (2%).  Thus, it seems that global trade now appears to be tracking its typical seasonal path, albeit at a lower absolute level of activity.  Feels a bit like the global economy is treading water.

Methodological notes for the data junkies:

  • Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
  • “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year.  As of the end of June, there were 86,616 significant manufacturers.
  • “Significant buyers” are companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year.  As of the end of June, there were 72,850 significant buyers.

Lear: A Post Mortem

Josh Green | July 7, 2009

Earlier today, Lear Corp., a major supplier to the auto industry, filed for bankruptcy protection.  Lear has a global supply chain, so the Panjiva research team took a look at its shipment history to see if there were tell-tale signs of the company’s demise.  See below.  Major drop-off in January, and it moved onto the Panjiva Watch List in February.

Panjiva Analysis of Lear: A Buyer in Decline

See our previous analyses of other bankruptcies in the auto industry.

New Information on Panjiva

Josh Green | June 29, 2009

Today, I’m excited to announce that we’re working with three new affiliates to integrate additional information into Panjiva Search.  Please join me in welcoming these affiliates, who are making it even easier to find the supplier that’s right for you (and avoid the suppliers that are wrong for you)…

deKieffer & Horgan - Red Flag Suppliers

deKieffer & Horgan will provide Panjiva subscribers with information that will make it easier to steer clear of counterfeiters, diverters, and other companies engaged in illicit activities.  deKieffer & Horgan’s mission is to provide timely, reliable legal advice that will help their clients compete successfully in international business by ensuring adherence to the law and promoting effective interaction with the responsible government agencies.  Over the last 15 years, deKieffer & Horgan has compiled the EDDI database, which contains an astounding amount of information about companies that have engaged in illicit activities — information that will soon be accessible to Panjiva subscribers.

Social Accountability International (SAI) – Certified Suppliers

Social Accountability International (SAI) will provide Panjiva subscribers with information that will make it easier to find socially responsible manufacturers.   SAI is a non-profit organization dedicated to improving workplaces and communities by developing and implementing social responsibility standards and assisting brands, retailers and suppliers in meeting labor and human rights objectives.  Soon, Panjiva subscribers will be able to focus their searches on manufacturers that have been certified as being compliant with the SA8000 standard established by SAI.

Worldwide Responsible Accredited Production (WRAP) – Certified Suppliers

Worldwide Responsible Accredited Production (WRAP) will provide Panjiva subscribers with information that will make it easier to find socially responsible manufacturers.  WRAP is a non-profit organization dedicated to the certification of lawful, humane and ethical manufacturing throughout the world, based on 12 Production Principles focusing on compliance with local laws, workplace regulations, universal workers’ rights, the environment, customs rules and security.  Soon, Panjiva subscribers will be able to focus their searches on manufacturers that have been certified as being WRAP-compliant.

Panjiva in Harvard Business Review

Josh Green | June 25, 2009

Panjiva’s contribution to this month’s Harvard Business Review: “Just How Healthy Is Your Global Partner?”

hbr-cover-perfect.PNG

“Multinational corporations and their manufacturing partners in emerging markets need to rethink how they manage their relationships with each other in light of the global downturn.”

http://hbr.harvardbusiness.org/2009/07/just-how-healthy-is-your-global-partner/ar/1

Panjiva in the News: May Trade Data

Josh Green | June 19, 2009

Earlier this week, Panjiva released data showing that the number of global manufacturers serving the U.S. market increased for a third month in a row.  This three-in-a-row increase is the first we’ve seen since we began tracking this metric in July 2007 — certainly an encouraging sign.  However, in an absolute sense, we’re still seeing a low level of trade activity, and global trade remains vulnerable to additional shocks.  Here’s a sampling of the press coverage of Panjiva’s latest analysis:

Panjiva in the Wall Street Journal — Global Trade Data

The Wall Street Journal: “‘America led the global economy into a downturn; now, a sustained increase in the number of global companies serving the U.S. market suggests that America may be leading us out of the downturn,’ said Panjiva CEO Josh Green. ‘That said, anyone hoping for a quick recovery to pre-crisis levels of global trade is likely to be disappointed.’”

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/06/18/trade-picture-clouded-by-rise-in-oil/


<br “Panjiva in BusinessWeek — Global Trade Data” />

BusinessWeek: “‘Increasingly, it feels that the worst is behind us,’ says Josh Green, chief executive officer of the trade-tracking firm. Waxing cautious, however, he adds ‘Still, we have a long way to get back to the pre-crisis level of global trade.’”

http://www.businessweek.com/managing/economic_recovery/blog/archives/2009/06/global_trade_ri.html

Panjiva in About.com — Global Trade Data

About.com: “Panjiva’s research team also found that there was a decline in manufacturers on their watch list, which was the first time since September 2008.”

http://logistics.about.com/b/2009/06/17/shipments-to-the-us-rise-again-in-may.htm

Panjiva in Supply Chain Management Review — Global Trade Data

Supply Chain Management Review: “We are seeing some encouraging signs, but there is still a low level of overall activity in an absolute sense.”

http://www.scmr.com/article/CA6665999.html

Logistics Management: “Companies continue to be cautious in their approach to placing orders, according to Green, and they are much more cognizant of the risks that are in their supply chains.”

http://www.logisticsmgmt.com/article/CA6665988.html?industryid=48470

World Trade Magazine: “Panjiva cautions that there will likely be further supplier bankruptcies.”

http://www.worldtrademag.com/CDA/Articles/Breaking_News/BNP_GUID_9-5-2006_A_10000000000000610030

Modern Materials Handling: “Said Green… ‘As macroeconomic circumstances change, people are going to be looking at a variety of potential risks.’”

http://www.mmh.com/article/CA6665991.html

Carpe Diem: “[M]ore offshore manufacturers are shipping goods into the consumer-driven U.S. market, global-trade tracker Panjiva reports.”

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/06/shipping-index-rises-for-third-straight.html

May Trade Data: More Good News

Josh Green | June 16, 2009

The word from Panjiva’s research team: for the third straight month, there was an uptick (2%) in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market.  Notably, this is the first time we’ve seen three monthly increases in a row since we began tracking this metric in July of 2007.

Panjiva Analysis: Increase in Companies Shipping to U.S. from April to May 2009

Some additional good news:

  • The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List declined from 31% in April to 30% in May.  This also is a first — the first decline in the percentage of significant manufacturers appearing on the Watch List since we began tracking this metric in September of 08.
  • Similarly, the percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months declined from 41% in April to 40% in May.

These numbers lend further credence to the possibility that global trade has already hit bottom and that we are witnessing the first steps of a recovery in global trade.  However, pessimists should take note of the following:

  • In 2008, there was a Spring uptick in the number of manufacturers shipping to the U.S., suggesting that there’s a seasonal component to what we’re seeing.
  • This most recent 2% uptick in the number of manufacturers shipping to the U.S. is modest, suggesting that recovery to pre-crisis levels of trade activity will likely take some time.
  • While things are getting better in a relative sense, the absolute amount of risk in the system remains quite high.  I.e., we’re likely to continue to see supplier bankruptcies, and the system as a whole remains quite vulnerable to further shocks.

Methodological notes for the data junkies:

  • Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
  • “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year.  As of the end of May, there were 86,331 significant manufacturers.
  • “Significant buyers” are companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year.  As of the end of May, there were 72,031 significant buyers.

ReadWriteWeb: Panjiva Serves Up Vital Data…

Josh Green | June 5, 2009

Thoughtful write-up of Panjiva on one of my favorite tech blogs, ReadWriteWeb:

“With the state of the economy, news orgs like BusinessWeek and The Wall Street Journal have turned to it [Panjiva] as a bellwether for the health of global trade.”

Read the rest… 

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