EsWe held a webinar on January 11 to discuss the outlook for global trade in 2017. The topics covered, which were covered in Panjiva research from December 30 through January 4, included:
2016 in Review: Last year was one of shocks (Trump, Brexit, Hanjin Shipping) and not-so-surprising surprises (falling shipping rates, struggling trade deals and lots of trade cases in steel).
Trade Deals to Track in 2017: 2016 brought a great many uncertainties to trade policy globally, 2017 should bring full or partial resolution to deals from Nafta and RCEP to Brexit and the SLA.
Shipping Industry Questions to Answer in 2017: The shipping industry may have a better year in 2017. Corporates have responded to weak rates with corporate deals, though these face regulatory risks and will need continued discipline on capital spending and scrapping to be a success.
Trade Sensitive Industries to Watch in 2017: Global supply chains face further upheaval in 2017. Autos, toys, consumer electronics and agriculture all face tariff and nontariff threats. Non-trade policies may also impact trade in renewable energy equipment and weapons, while technology may (finally) make a big difference to apparel.
The Q&A session covered border adjustment tax, potential new trade cases to be launched, ‘black swan’ risks and the prospects for a U.S./U.K. deal.
