Supply Chain Research

U.S. retail sales growth continued its acceleration in January, Panjiva’s analysis of official data shows, with a 5.8% year over year improvement in total sales and a 6.2% increase when excluding autos and fuel. The latter compares to a 3.7% increase in December and included a 9.3% rise in furniture store sales, a 7.8% surge in general store sales and a 22.1% increase in non-store (ie e-commerce) sales. The outlier was clothing which continued to decline with an 11.2% slide, likely reflecting the continued closure of offices and resulting need for formal wear.

Chart segments U.S. retail sales by store type. Calculations based on U.S. Census Bureau data. Source: Panjiva

The improved sales growth follows a recovery in late 2020 that lifted a wide range of consumer discretionary products firms including across the appliances, furniture and leisure products spaces. That’s come at the cost, however, of increasing freight costs as discussed in Panjiva’s research of Feb. 15.

The rate of product import growth continues to run well ahead of retail sales growth. Panjiva’s data shows U.S. seaborne imports of consumer discretionary products climbed 26.3% year over year in January. That was led by an 80.9% rise in imports of household appliances, a 37.1% rise in leisure products (toys and sporting goods) and a 34.4% increase in home furnishings. The outlier has been textiles / apparel where imports dipped 1.9% lower, reversing after four months of expansion.

Chart segments U.S. seaborne imports by industry. Source: Panjiva

Among the major apparel and textiles manufacturers / retailers the most marked downturn was at adidas AG where imports fell by 3.9% year over year after surging 59.3% higher than a year earlier in Q4’20. The latter included comparisons to an unusually weak Q4’19. Imports linked to shoe retailer Steve Madden dropped by 44.5% in January after rising by 14.4% in Q4’20. 

Among the apparel specialists Hanesbrands experienced a notable downturn of 15.5% in January after 26.5% growth in Q4’20. Other firms have experienced a reversal in their rate of growth, including Deckers Outdoor which slowed to a 24.3% expansion in January from growth of 98.5%, or an accelerated rate of decline shown by Nike’s 32.1% dip.

Chart segments U.S. seaborne imports of apparel by consignee. Source: Panjiva