The U.S. section 201 “safeguarding” investigation of the solar power industry may be proving to be counterproductive. As outlined in Panjiva research of tktkt the ITC ruled that increased imports had caused “serious injury” to U.S. industry.

In the very short term U.S. imports in August were actually down 41.9% on a year earlier in dollar terms, Panjiva data shows, and 54.0% for the three months to August 31 in dollar terms. However in September, just ahead of the ITC decision, seaborne shipments actually increased by 32.9% on a year earlier, and were only 3.5% below their June 2016 peak.

Chart compares U.S. imports of solar power equipment and wind turbine supplies’ shipments, lower panel adds both together. Source: Panjiva

That acceleration has been most marked in shipments by Hanwha Q-Cells, which increased shipments by 134% on a year earlier in September. It accounted for 34.8% of all shipments on its own and ships mostly from South Korea and Malaysia. Number two importer Trina Solar was still down on a year earlier, but shipped the most product since October while Powerway and Panasonic also picked up the pace of supplies.

Unlike Trina Solar, fellow China-domiciled manufacturer Jinko Solar has not aggressively redomiciled production to other countries – including Vietnam and Malaysia in Trina’s case. As a result it has seen U.S.-bound shipments in the third quarter dwindle to 14.6% of their year-earlier level.

U.S. imports of solar energy equipment segmented by company name including known subsidiaries Source: Panjiva

Exports from China to the U.S. were their highest in a year, but were still down 55.1% on a year earlier. That’s led producers such as Jinko to find new markets, which has particularly seen a focus on India. Shipments to India climbed 13.4% in August vs. a year earlier, compared to total Chinese exports that fell 8.9%.

Chart segments Chinese solar panel and associated equipment exports by destination country. Lower panel shows annual change in the total. Source: Panjiva

If the U.S. is closed to most producers, then Chinese manufacturers will face competition for Indian customers. That can already been seen in data for August. Indian imports climbed 45.6% on a year earlier, with those from Malaysia climbing by 133% and those from China by 39.6% as buyers seek to take advantage of increased choice.

The peak import season comes in November through March, timed relative to the rainy season. That gives little time for Malaysian and South Korean exporters to the U.S. to switch to India if the U.S. implements tariffs or quotas.

Chart segments Indian solar panel and associated equipment exports by country of origin. Source: Panjiva