The recovery in U.S. retail sales appears to have stalled. Panjiva’s analysis of official data shows total retail sales rose by just 0.1% year over year in August after a 3.5% rise in July. Excluding the volatile autos and fuel segments there was a slowdown in growth to just 1.6% in August from 4.8% in July. 

In percentage terms the weakest performance came from clothing stores which saw a 23.5% drop, likely due to ongoing poor demand as a result of continued stay-at-home policies for corporations and some schools as discussed in Panjiva’s Sep. 9 research. Sales by furniture and electrical stores rose by just 0.4% and declined by 3.4% respectively suggesting that consumer demand has yet to take-off.

Chart segments change in U.S. retail sales by sector. Calculations based on U.S. Census Bureau data.  Source: Panjiva

While nonstore retailers are expanding more rapidly, the latter furniture and electricals segments may face an emerging inventory problem. Panjiva’s U.S. seaborne import data shows that shipments of furniture and household appliances rose by 38.1% and 79.7% year over year respectively in August. Consumer electronics also continued to grow with an expansion of 15.3% year over year in August reversing a prior downturn. Textiles and apparel remained in a downturn with a 13.2% contraction.

Chart segments change in U.S. seaborne imports by Global Industry Classification.  Source: Panjiva

The surge in furniture shipments to specialist stores has been led by a 41.9% rise in shipments linked to Ikea in August, which followed a 38.9% slump in July, Panjiva’s data shows. Shipments handled by Target’s in-house customs operations also surged by 33.6% suggesting furniture sales via big-box retailers are also increasing. Not all suppliers are experiencing growth, however, with furniture shipments linked to Dorel Industries having declined by 7.8% in August.

Chart segments U.S. seaborne imports of furniture by consignee on a monthly and three-month average basis.  Source: Panjiva