Merkel’s $1 billion EU Export Opportunity for Uruguay — Panjiva
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Merkel’s $1 billion EU Export Opportunity for Uruguay

Ags - Forestry 134 Ags - Grains/Beans 318 Consumer Staples 805 European Union 878 Germany 267 Politics 153 Trade Deals 1017 Uruguay 5

Chancellor Merkel of Germany has said she would welcome a free trade deal with the Mercosur trade bloc, partly as a response to the protectionist trade policies emerging in the United States. She identified Uruguay as a leader in negotiations that could include energy and agricultural products. The next round of talks are due to be held in March according to the European Commission.

Panjiva data shows that Uruguay imported $2.69 billion of goods from the European Union in 2016, 13.6% lower than a year earlier. The EU accounted for 17.6% global imports, with leading products already focussed in the energy industry including oil and power generating equipment including transformer units and wind turbines.

On the export side Uruguay shipped $3.79 billion, which was 2.1% lower than a year earlier with the  largest lines bring meat and fruit products. That resulted in a trade surplus in Uruguay’s favor of $1.1 billion – that was 45.3% higher than a year earlier but down 62.6% on two years before.

URUGUAY TRADE SUCCESS WITH EUROPE EVAPORATING

Chart shows Uruguay’s imports and exports with European Union averaged over the prior 12 months Source: Panjiva

Uruguay has a lot to gain. Out of its top 50 exports globally, it only exports one half of those products to the European Union at all. Major areas for expansion include lumber (8.7% of global exports, none to the EU), soybeans (14.4% of total, 6.5% of EU-bound), powdered milk (5.4% vs. 0%) and rice (4.5% vs. 0%). Normalizing those four areas to global levels would add just over $1 billion to Uruguay’s exports in theory.

MOST TO GAIN IN BEANS, WOOD AND MILK

Chart shows proportion of Uruguay’s exports to European Union (vertical axis) and globally (horizontal) in calendar 2016 Source: Panjiva

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