Oil and Tariffs Slow Chinese Imports But U.S.-Bound Export Growth Remains Robust — Panjiva
Más

Panjiva_research_logo

Oil and Tariffs Slow Chinese Imports But U.S.-Bound Export Growth Remains Robust

China 1758 Cons. Discr. - Autos 661 Cons. Discr. - Durables 107 Tariffs 1169 Trade Balance 657 U.S. 3297

China’s international trade growth slowed markedly in November, Panjiva analysis of official data shows, with yuan-denominated exports having increased by 10.2% on a year earlier vs. 14.7% in the prior three months. Imports slowed more quickly to 7.8% from 20.7% though that can in part be blamed on collapsing oil prices – which were unchanged on a year earlier in November having increased 38.5% over the prior three month period according S&P Global Market Intelligence data – rather than industrial activity.

SLOWING BUT HARDLY SLOW

Chart segments Chinese global trade activity by direction. Calculations include China General Customs Administration data.  Source: Panjiva

Trade with the United States continued to be skewed by the implementation of bilateral tariffs covering $360 billion of trade, or 51.5% of the total over the past 12 months. Chinese exports to the U.S. surged 9.8% higher than a year earlier indicating that the rush to beat increased tariffs in January – discussed in Panjiva research of Dec. 10 – had continued. The slowdown from 13.5% in the prior three months would suggest the impact of that effect had fallen.

A 25.0% slump in imports, linked primarily to agricultural products resulted in the lowest level of imports since July 2016 and a record one month trade surplus of $35.6 billion. That widening will not help the tone of talks between the U.S. and Chinese governments over the period to March 1. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has already indicated that those talks will not be extended beyond that date, Reuters reports.

TARIFFS TAKING A TOLL ON IMPORTS, NOT SO MUCH ON EXPORTS

Chart segments Chinese trade activity with the U.S. by direction. Calculations include China General Customs Administration data.  Source: Panjiva

Among seaborne shipments to the U.S. many of the major categories afflicted by tariffs continued to see growth with imports of furniture (HS 9403) and auto-parts (HS 8708) having both risen by 13.1%, Panjiva data shows. The increase in auto components is also likely being driven by concerns regarding the ongoing section 232 review of the industry.

CONCERNS ABOUT 25%, NOT IMPACT OF 10%, DRIVING U.S. IMPORTS FROM CHINA

Chart segments U.S. seaborne imports from China by product (HS-4).  Source: Panjiva

The fastest rate of growth among importers of auto-parts was seen by Winhere Brakes, which surged 66.7% on a year earlier. Yet Increases were far from universal though with imports by General Motors having fallen by 25.1% and Prime Wheel – which supplies FiatChrysler and Ford as well as General Motors by 21.1%. More of the same could come if importers decide they have sufficient volumes to see them through the 90 day negotiation period.

WINHERE TAKES THE HIGH ROAD, GM THE LOW ROAD, TO DEALING WITH TARIFFS

Chart segments U.S. seaborne imports of auto-parts (HS 8708) by consignee.  Source: Panjiva

PANJIVA RESEARCH is a service provided by Panjiva, Inc. ("Panjiva") to relevant global subscribers, and are deemed to be Panjiva "Services" subject to the Panjiva Terms & Conditions of Use. Information contained within or made available via the Services is for informational purposes only and nothing in the Services shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Panjiva, Inc. or its affiliates of an investment strategy or whether to "buy", "sell" or "hold" an investment. The Services may include views and commentary about customers of Panjiva. No aspect of the Services is based on consideration of your individual circumstances, and you should determine on your own whether you agree with the information contained within or made available via the Services. Employees involved in Panjiva Research may hold positions in securities analyzed or discussed in the Services. Panjiva does not make any express or implied warranties, representations, endorsements or conditions with respect to the Services and the information contained within or made available via the Services, including without limitation, warranties as to the usefulness, completeness, accuracy, currentness, reliability or sufficiency of any information (including, without limitation, conclusions, statements, opinions, estimates, forecasts or projections of any kind) and expressly disclaims any implied warranties. Neither this disclaimer nor any of its contents may be forwarded or redistributed without the prior written consent of Panjiva. © 2019 Panjiva, Inc. All Rights Reserved.