– A narrow US-Iran two‑week ceasefire will not immediately smooth logistics through the Strait of Hormuz. More than 600 vessels are waiting at Persian Gulf ports and crossings fell to three per day in March versus a usual 100, leaving disruption likely to persist even if tensions ease.
– With global fleets well supplied, the conflict is showing up as execution risk rather than an outright shortage, pushing congestion into alternative South and Southeast Asian hubs, secondary ports and overland corridors. Constraints at major Middle East air hubs are a specific vulner...