Toyota’s Torrid September May Pale Next To Forthcoming Supply Chain Decisions — Panjiva
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Toyota’s Torrid September May Pale Next To Forthcoming Supply Chain Decisions

Cons. Discr. - Autos 661 Japan 381 U.S. 3301

Japanese exports of cars and light trucks by the big seven automakers fell 6.5% on a year earlier in September, Panjiva analysis of company filings shows. That was led by a 11.4% slump in shipments from Toyota, which followed a 4.0% expansion in the prior three months and was the worst monthly performance since January 2017.

Nissan also suffered a 25.8% downturn while Mazda experienced a 14.8% downturn, led by reduced shipments of the mid-sized CX-3 SUV. Honda was the outlier with a 4.7x increase in exports as production of the CR-V in Japan for the European market got underway.

TOYOTA TAPS THE BRAKES WHILE MAZDA SLOWS SHARPLY

Chart compares global exports of passenger vehicles from Japan by manufacturer on a monthly (dotted) and quarterly average (solid) basis. Calculations based on company filings from Toyota, Nissan and Mazda.   Source: Panjiva

The U.S. market followed a similar pattern for the automakers, with seaborne imports down 5.6% on a year earlier in September, Panjiva data shows, following a 7.6% rise in the prior three months. The slowdown in shipments suggests the manufacturers do not expect a turnaround in sales, which saw a 10.4% slide in September vs. a year earlier in Toyota’s case S&P Global Market Intelligence reports.

STOP-START GROWTH

Chart compares global exports of passenger vehicles from Japan to U.S. imports from Japan, most recent month based on seaborne shipment figures. Calculations include company operational filings.   Source: Panjiva

That can also be seen in the 25.0% slump in Toyota’s U.S.-seaborne imports from Japan, while Honda and Nissan may be taking a more upbeat outlook with a 15.6% and 4.9x (likely model driven and compared to an exceptionally weak quarter the year before) increase respectively. Looking further ahead the Japanese automakers will need to decide how to align their North American supply chains given, as outlined in Panjiva research of Oct. 29, the USMCA deal is finalized but the section 232 review of the industry has yet to be completed.

HONDA’S HOPES HIGHER THAN TOYOTA’S

Chart segments U.S. seaborne imports of passenger vehicles (HS 8703) by shipper.   Source: Panjiva

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