U.S. automotive sales appear to be well past their best. Sales in May fell 1.5% sequentially on a SAAR (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) basis and dropped to their lowest since August, Panjiva analysis of Motor Intelligence data shows. Sales of both imported and domestically produced vehicles fell (by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively) with truck sales underperforming cars for the first time in nine months.

The launch of a section 232 “national security” review of the automotive industry by the Trump administration, outlined in Panjiva research of May 25, could have a multi-phase effect on sales. On the one hand the prospect of higher tariffs on imported vehicles (currently at 2.5%) may encourage buyers to move sooner. However, the timetable for the case – on the basis of the recently completed section 232 review of steel and aluminum – may mean duties won’t actually bite for another 12 months.

The launch of the section 232 case may have been a surprise to automakers. Panjiva data shows seaborne imports of completed vehicles actually fell 17.3% on a year earlier in May on a preliminary basis – they’re likely expecting a further slowing of sales. That followed five months of growth that had resulted in a 29.0% increase in shipments in the three months to April 30 on a year earlier.

Chart shows U.S. seaborne imports of completed passenger vehicles (HS 8703). Lower panel shows change vs. a year earlier.  Source: Panjiva

The automakers are taking significantly different stances to the market. Among the European shippers imports from Daimler increased 34.3% in May on a year earlier compared to a 35.7% drop from BMW. Among the Japanese manufacturers, whose exports globally rose 17%, Nissan cut shipments by 33.7% while Honda’s were only 0.3% lower.

Chart segments U.S. seaborne imports of completed passenger vehicles (HS 8703) by shipper subsidiary.  Source: Panjiva