U.S. sales of bicycles could surge by as much as 35% year over year in 2020 for certain models of road bikes, Bloomberg reports, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic leading customers to choose bikes over gym memberships. That may lead to an unintentional surge in imports from China. Imports of bike components and safety equipment have been subject to section 301 duties, though exemptions have been granted as outlined in Panjiva’s research of May 18.

Panjiva’s data shows that U.S. imports of bicycles have not yet responded to the increase in demand, indicating that domestic manufacturers may be winning market share from imports. Total imports dropped by 19.7% year over year in Q1 including a 34.9% slide in March as a result of disruptions to supply chains based in China. That’s likely continued in April with a further 36.0% drop on the basis of U.S. seaborne imports.

Chart segments U.S. imports of bicycles and parts by origin on a monthly and three-month average basis. Source: Panjiva

All the major brands have experienced a marked downturn in April. Shipments linked to the largest two shippers by volume, Giant and Roth’s Trek, fell by 23.1% and 10.9% respectively in April after dropping in Q1 too. Shipments linked to Specialized meanwhile declined by 23.1% in April after turning in a more robust 3.8% growth in Q1. Dorel’s  Cannondale, which is a fraction of the size of the others, also saw a 46.2% drop in April after a surge in the prior quarter.

Chart segments U.S. seaborne imports of bicycles and parts by consignee brand. Source: Panjiva