U.S. imports of toys for the holiday shopping season likely peaked early this year, with an early surge having suddenly stopped in October. Panjiva data shows there was an 8.8% decline in seaborne imports October after a 16.6% surge in 3Q. 

That’s likely due to the threat of tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. from Dec. 15 having been lifted – China represented 84.2% of the total in the past 12 months to Oct. 31. Importers therefore run the risk that tariffs will rise if talks fall apart, though they would only be applied once the peak shopping period is done. 

The drop is also partly skewed by an 18.1% drop in videogame imports, despite the launch of the Nintendo Switch Lite discussed in Panjiva’s research of Sept. 27. Despite that imports of toys excluding videogames still declined by 7.8%.

Chart shows U.S. seaborne imports of toys.  Source: Panjiva

Among the major brands, the strongest performance has been among movie tie-ins. Toy Story related imports surged 135% higher year over year in October after a 254% jump in 3Q that may be linked to the final movie of the series.

Similarly imports linked to Marvel franchises climbed 28.5% after an 28.3% rise in 3Q following the wrap-up of the Avengers series as well as the latest installment of Spiderman. There was also a 34.1% jump in imports linked to Star Wars ahead of the final film in the main sequence due in late December.

Chart segments U.S. seaborne imports of toys by brand name.  Source: Panjiva

Of the two big brand owners, Hasbro brands include Marvel and Star Wars, though traditional brands such as Nerf and legacy Disney films have been doing less well. As a result the four together saw a drop of 0.2% year over year in October.

Mattel should be doing better though given it controls the with Toy Story and Barbie brands, which offset a drop in imports linked to Fisher-Price and resulted in a 24.7% improvement in October

Chart segments U.S. seaborne imports of selected toy brands by franchise owner.  Source: Panjiva