Trump’s $57.6 Billion Tariff Take Has Peaked, For Now — Panjiva
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Trump’s $57.6 Billion Tariff Take Has Peaked, For Now

Tariffs 1205 U.S. 3362

The Trump administration’s tariff-led trade policies have generated significant new tax revenues for the government. Panjiva analysis of U.S. Treasury figures shows that U.S. customs duties income climbed 67.4% year over year in March to reach $5.16 billion for the month.

That brought the total in the 12 months to $57.6 billion, or $21.57 billion higher than a year earlier. The increase has largely been down to new duties applied to imports from China – 25% rates on $50 billion of products in July and August and 10% on a further $200 billion in September – as well as duties of 10% to 25% on $46.5 billion of aluminum and steel since March.

The tariff income may largely have topped out after reaching a peak of $6.63 billion in December. Total U.S. imports from China fell 9.0% year over year in 1Q 2019, Panjiva analysis of official data shows. Additionally tariffs may be reduced or removed going forward as a result of current negotiations, as discussed in Panjiva’s research of Apr. 12.

Imports of steel and aluminum also appear to have peaked, having fallen 3.0% year over year in 1Q and by 6.6% in March, Panjiva data shows. Coverage of the metals tariffs may also drop depending on the outcome of negotiations with Canada, Mexico, the European Union and Japan.

Yet, ongoing tariff reviews could yet result in higher tariffs. A Presidential decision regarding the section 232 review of the automotive industry is due by May 17. Section 232 reviews of the uranium and titanium sponge sectors are underway. A wider trade war with the EU is also brewing, though new duties – covering products worth $12 billion or more – won’t be decided upon until 2020.

PAST PEAK TARIFFS ON BASIS OF CURRENT COVERAGE

Chart compared total U.S. customs duty income to imports of all products from China and imports of steel and aluminum metals products covered by section 232 tariffs. Calculations include U.S. Treasury data.   Source: Panjiva

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