The integration of global supply chains leaves them vulnerable to “black swan” – low likelihood, high impact – events. The U.S.-China relationship may worsen should North Korea back away from denuclearization. America may well blame China, jeopardizing a trade deal even though China’s trade with the DPRK fell 52.6% on a year earlier in the 12 months to Nov. 30. U.S.-China naval rivalry in the South China Sea and China’s more hawkish stance towards Taiwan could become a military confrontation even if by accident. That would cause significant shipping issues in the region. There were 3.11...