The U.S. advance trade deficit, covering only goods and scheduled to be released on April 27, will be closely watched given the high degree of trade policy activity in recent weeks. As outlined in Panjiva research of March 31 President Donald Trump has issued an Executive Order to create an omnibus report on the causes of the U.S. trade deficit. While this will use data from 2016, the forthcoming March data will give a signal as to whether importers and exporters are changing their behavior in anticipation of new policies.

Exports may have increased by more than 10%. Panjiva’s analysis of seaborne data from eight major ports indicates a rise in handling of full containers of 7.4%, led by California’s ports. Export prices in the meantime increased 3.6% on a year earlier due to higher energy prices.

Chart shows aggregate change in export container handling by eight ports combined with Bureau of Labor Statistics pricing and Census Bureau final trade deficit export growth. Source: Panjiva

Import prices increased by slightly more with a 4.3% increase in prices – the U.S. is still a net energy importer. Seaborne imports was similar to exports with a 7.3% expansion, Panjiva data for all major seaports shows. That would suggest the year-over-year development of the deficit could be broadly unchanged. Consensus estimates from economists surveyed by Bloomberg currently expect the deficit to increase 9.2% to $65.5 billion from $62.8 billion a year earlier.

Calculations for U.S. imports combining Panjiva import volumes with BLS’s MXP index change. Lower panel shows advanced goods deficit from U.S. Census Bureau – dotted line shows Bloomberg reported consensus. Source: Panjiva