Japan will push for a completion of a revised Trans-Pacific Partnership deal by year end at a forthcoming APEC meetings on May 21, Nikkei reports. The 11 members, excluding the U.S. which withdrew earlier this year as outlined in Panjiva research of January 24, would need to change at least one basic rule for the deal to become binding. That relates to the proportion of GDP covered by ratifying countries, which at 85% would not be possible without the U.S. Another challenge is that members including Vietnam and Malaysia may be less willing to join as U.S. market access was the “main prize” for them.

The Japanese government has a busy year ahead trying to secure major trade deals. The TPP group, excluding the U.S., accounted for 7.8 trillion yen ($68.8 billion) of exports in the past 12 months, Panjiva data shows. That was roughly the same as the EU at 7.9 trillion yen, with which Japan has a free trade deal that should be completed by year end. Both accounted for 11% of global exports.  

The bigger challenges are with the U.S. and China, which represent 19.7% and 23.2% of exports. The U.S. wants a bilateral negotiation with Japan, which the government does not want to accommodate. The Chinese government are pushing the RCEP trade deal, which Japan forms a smaller part of and so may not get as favorable terms.

Chart segments Japanese exports by destination country. TPP-11 excludes U.S. Source: Panjiva