The U.S. International Trade Commission has ruled that exports of aluminum foil from China have materially injured U.S. industry. That’s part of the final phase of the investigation, and will now allow the Commerce Department to issue duties, based on dumping rates which were previously determined to be 106%. It also comes shortly after the announcement of section 232 tariffs on the aluminum industry more broadly, which will apply additional duties of 10% – as outlined in Panjiva research of March 9 – on the products from March 23.

Panjiva data shows the case has been partly successful in deterring exports from China, with shipments in February having fallen by 61.9% vs. the prior 12 months average. However, other suppliers – including from Armenia, Brazil, Germany and Russia – have taken up some of the slack with a 34.4% increase over the same period. Total imports fell by just 19.7% as a result.

Chart segments U.S. imports of aluminum foil by market of origin. Most recent month based on seaborne shipments only. Source: Panjiva

Consumers have paid the price, however, with the average import value per ton – a proxy for price – having risen by 20.2% in January vs. the prior 12 months. That’s before the additional 10% that will come from the section 232 tariffs of course.

Chart shows average import value per ton of U.S. imports of aluminum foil on a monthly (dotted) and quarterly rolling average (solid) basis. Source: Panjiva