Mexican exports of passenger vehicles increased 5.0% on a year earlier to 133,768 units in October according to industry association AMIA. This equates to an 11.7% increase on a quarterly basis, with exports reaching the highest since July 2015.

For the year through September 30 Panjiva data shows Ford is the largest exporter from Mexico to all destinations by value at 20.2%, followed by Nissan (18.7%), Volkswagen (16.3%) and Honda (12.9%). Volkswagen saw significant growth, with exports increase 12.7% on a year earlier in September while Ford and Nissan both experienced declines.

Upper panel calculations based on AMIA data for passenger vehicles only. Lower panel shows quarterly total units exported to all markets. Source: Panjiva

Going forward Mexican auto exports will be a function of how automakers react to trade policy under the new U.S. administration. Ford has decided to move small vehicle production there from the U.S. while GM has committed to increasing investment in the country, as discussed in Panjiva research of October 17. U.S.-domiciled manufacturers only accounted for 20% of exports from Mexico specifically to the U.S., Panjiva data shows.

Lower panel based on global exports of HS 8703 products Source: Panjiva

The bigger issue for U.S. employment is that there is significant two-way trade in parts as well as completed vehicles. Indeed, Panjiva data shows that the U.S. exported $2.0 billion more value of auto parts to Mexico each month over the past year than it received. Its exports have been falling though, with a 1.8% drop in September making the fourth month of declines. Automakers may choose to centralize their parts and auto assembly businesses in Mexico.

Data based on auto parts (HS 8708) using Mexico data for imports from and exports to the U.S. Source: Panjiva