The National Retail Federation believes spending on ‘back to school’ items will jump this year. The import data says otherwise – kids apparel shipments fell 14.6% in June and 13% in July. Shirts underperformed t-shirts, and denim is in a long term decline, falling 14.6% in June, 14.1% in July and 11 out of 12 months – not great for Levi Strauss and V.F. Corp.