Supply Chain Research

Global coffee exports slumped 14.8% on a year earlier in September, Panjiva analysis of ICO data shows. That was the first drop since July 2016, while shipments of 8.34 million bags was the lowest in at least three years. The drop was entirely accounted for by a 14.8% drop in shipments from Brazil – the ninth straight decline – while shipments from Vietnam collapsed by 39.8%.

The outlook for Vietnam is not much better, with this year’s harvest likely to be the worst in five years, Bloomberg reports. A 10% rise in exports from Colombia and a 25% rise from India only provided a partial offset.

Chart segments year-over-year change in global coffee exports by country of origin. Calculations based on ICO data.  Source: Panjiva

The drop in global exports appears to have held U.S. buyers back in September – Panjiva data shows an 8.0% drop on a year earlier. However they have rebounded in October with a 6.0% increase, albeit into the seasonal low-point of the year. That meant demand for the past quarter, outperforming the 6.0% decline experienced by tea imports.

Chart compares U.S. imports of coffee (blue line) and tea (orange line). Last two months based on seaborne imports only.  Source: Panjiva

Colombia remained the number one origin for supplies to the U.S., having taken over from Brazil following the latter’s harvest problems.

Chart segments U.S. seaborne imports of coffee by country of origin. Source: Panjiva