Dark Past, Brighter Outlook For Solar Industry as Tariffs Become the New Normal — Panjiva
Más

Panjiva_research_logo

Dark Past, Brighter Outlook For Solar Industry as Tariffs Become the New Normal

Energy - Renewables 99 Malaysia 66 Tariffs 1169 U.S. 3297 Vietnam 155

U.S. installations of solar power equipment fell by 8.8% on a year earlier in the second quarter, S&P Global Market Intelligence reports, as a result of uncertainty caused by the implementation of section 201 duties on imported solar panels.

Yet, a recovery in demand and adjustment to the tariffs has meant a record 8,500 MW of new projects have been booked in the first half of the year, in part as utilities look to secure subsidized returns ahead of the 2020 end of the current tax support period. That also reflects the relatively low proportion of duties within the overall cost of installing a solar power plant at around one third of the total, as outlined in Panjiva research of July 24.

Panjiva data shows the 30% tariffs implemented at the end of January have trimmed rather than crushed imports with shipments in the March to August period, including seaborne shipments for the most recent month, down by 33.3% on a year earlier and by 54.0% vs. 2015 levels.

DOWN, BUT NOT OUT

Chart segments U.S. imports of solar cells and panels by month. Most recent month based on seaborne shipments only.    Source: Panjiva

The period of “country hopping” by manufacturers facing a wave of antidumping duties – particularly against China – that precipitated the section 201 case (which covers all producers) appears to have stabilized. The top three supplier nations, on the basis of $1.2 billion of imports in the six months to July 31, were Malaysia (33.2%), Vietnam (10.7%) and Mexico (11.6%) with a long-tail of production in other countries.

CHASE FOR CHEAP LABOR, LOW TARIFFS MAY BE OVER

Chart segments U.S. imports of solar cells and panels by origin.    Source: Panjiva

A further evolution is likely as the large utility projects come to fruition. That may come in fits and starts as projects only have to start construction rather than be completed to be eligible for a given year’s tax credits. The largest importers by sea in the past six months have been Boviet (19% of imports) and Vina Solar (16.8%) from Vietnam alongside Longi (14.7%) from Malaysia and Trina Solar (13.0%) from Thailand.

BIG FIVE, LONG TAIL OF SOLAR PANEL SUPPLIERS

Chart segments U.S. seaborne imports of solar cells and panels by shipper and origin in the past six months, denominated in TEUs.    Source: Panjiva

PANJIVA RESEARCH is a service provided by Panjiva, Inc. ("Panjiva") to relevant global subscribers, and are deemed to be Panjiva "Services" subject to the Panjiva Terms & Conditions of Use. Information contained within or made available via the Services is for informational purposes only and nothing in the Services shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Panjiva, Inc. or its affiliates of an investment strategy or whether to "buy", "sell" or "hold" an investment. The Services may include views and commentary about customers of Panjiva. No aspect of the Services is based on consideration of your individual circumstances, and you should determine on your own whether you agree with the information contained within or made available via the Services. Employees involved in Panjiva Research may hold positions in securities analyzed or discussed in the Services. Panjiva does not make any express or implied warranties, representations, endorsements or conditions with respect to the Services and the information contained within or made available via the Services, including without limitation, warranties as to the usefulness, completeness, accuracy, currentness, reliability or sufficiency of any information (including, without limitation, conclusions, statements, opinions, estimates, forecasts or projections of any kind) and expressly disclaims any implied warranties. Neither this disclaimer nor any of its contents may be forwarded or redistributed without the prior written consent of Panjiva. © 2019 Panjiva, Inc. All Rights Reserved.