Mexican exports of vehicles climbed 15.0% on a year earlier in September, AMIA data shows. That included a 31.6% rise in light trucks and may reflect shipments to replace vehicles lost in the recent U.S. hurricanes. As outlined in Panjiva research of October 4, U.S. sales of imported vehicles reached the highest in over 20 years in September.

Unsurprisingly General Motors was the fastest growing of the major manufacturers at 33.4% (Kia and Toyota’s production is only half GM’s combined), with significant destocking in Mexico given its production only increased by 2.3%. Fiat-Chrysler meanwhile had increased production by 30.9% with exports expanding by 18.6%, possibly expanding its inventories as well as being ready for further shipments in October. Ford’s exports contracted for a fifth straight month.

Calculations based on AMIA data for total vehicle exports to all countries. Horizontal axis shows change in shipments for month vs. a year earlier, vertical axis for the change vs. three months ago. Bubble width indicates unit shipments, while colors vary for readability only. Source: Panjiva

Looking at the longer term it appears clear that the automakers are attempting to both accelerate sales to the U.S. and diversify their exports. That’s likely a response to the risk of NAFTA talks failing to yield a new deal, or one that requires a significant retooling of international supply chains.

The dollar value of shipments to the U.S. in the three months to August 31 climbed 44.0% on a year earlier to reach a new high, Panjiva data shows. From a diversification perspective there is a long way to go, though the U.S. as a proportion of total exports fell to 71.7% from 74.1% a year earlier over a three month period.

Chart compares rolling three month exports of completed autos from Mexico to the U.S. in absolute (blue) and relative (proportion of total shown by orange line) terms. Source: Panjiva