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Italy’s coronavirus lockdown may limit luxury, pharmaceutical exports

Cons. Discr. - Autos 955 Cons. Discr. - Durables 346 Coronavirus 430 Health Care 258 Italy 55 Programmatic 33 U.S. 4636

The impact and response to the deadly novel coronavirus in Italy has, expectedly, led to business impacts, Reuters reports, with manufacturing output at 15% below normal levels and warnings of a “significant fall” in GDP according to Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri. There’s likely to be a ripple effect for global supply chains, including U.S. importers of consumer and industrial goods.

Panjiva data, retrieved via S&P Global Market Intelligence XpressFeed, shows that U.S. leather and wool imports are at particular risk. Italy accounted for 35.5% of the leather imported to the U.S. by value equivalent to $208.9 million in 2019. Similarly, Italy accounted for 23.9% of U.S. wool imports. Luxury goods had already been at risk from an nascent U.S.-EU trade war, as outlined in Panjiva’s 2020 Outlook.

The largest import lines from Italy meanwhile were industrial machinery, worth $11.1 billion or 3.0% of total U.S. imports of machinery, while pharmaceuticals were worth $8.3 billion, or 6.6% of U.S. pharma imports. The latter is of particular importance given the coronavirus outbreak, and will likely be covered by a new EU prohibition on exports of medical supplies launched by the European Commission.

U.S. RELIES ON ITALY FOR LUXURIES; MACHINERY AND PHARMA THE LARGEST GROUPS

Chart segments U.S. imports from Italy by product (HS-2) comparing value of imports to proportion of total U.S. imports of those products. Bubble size indicates total U.S. imports. Data covers calendar 2019. Source: Panjiva

Companies in those categories that may be affected by an economic slump in italy include Leather Miracles, a furniture maker, whose imports of leather from Italy fell by 16.9% year over year in the three months to Feb 29. 

In the pharmaceutical category, Panjiva data shows Nichi-Iko Pharmaceutical is a major importer from Italy, while imports associated with the firm in the pharmaceutical category fell 95.9% year over year in the same period. SPAL Automotive may also face challenges with a fall in associated machinery imports of 78.0% year over year.

IMPORTS FROM ITALY IN DECLINE

Chart segments U.S. imports from Italy on a monthly and three month average basis. Source: Panjiva

Recreating this analysis in S&P Global Market Intelligence Xpressfeed

To recreate the company searchin Xpressfeed, create a multi-year HS code enabled subquery. Filter the subquery for HS codes 30, 41, 51, and 84 as well as shipment origin from Italy.

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