The U.S. Department of Agriculture has determined that Japan is free of swine fever and that pork exports to the United States can resume from July. That may be a moot point though. As outlined in Panjiva research of June 6 Mexico has applied retaliatory duties against U.S. exports of pork due to America’s section 232 duties on steel and aluminum. The Chinese government has also tightened import rules as part of the ongoing trade spat between the two countries.

Those rulings will increase the amount of domestically available pork that Japanese producers would need to contend with.

Japanese producers will also have to compete with other exporters. Panjiva data shows imports have climbed 8.8% in the past 12 months, Panjiva data shows, marking an acceleration from the prior three years’ 0.9% expansion. That masks a rapid expansion in shipments from Poland (up 111% in the past year) while Canada has seen a contract (2.3%).

Chart segments U.S. imports of live pigs and pork meat by origin on a monthly (dotted) and 12 month average (solid) basis.  Source: Panjiva