The Mexican government has issued a quota for pork imports of 350,000 tons to avoid shortage, though most of that will be filled by EU and Latin American products rather than the U.S., Politico reports. That the government’s decision to apply duties to American pork exports in retaliation for section 232 duties on steel and aluminum, as outlined in Panjiva research of June 6.

If that does occur it would represent a marked shift in Mexican pork imports. Panjiva data shows U.S. suppliers, led by JBS and Tyson Foods, accounted for 87.6% of the total in the 12 months to April 30. Notably there was a 46.6% surge on a year earlier in shipments from the U.S. in April on a year earlier possibly reflecting an anticipation of duties.

The remainder was principally accounted for by shipments from Canada (12.3%) leaving imports from the EU and elsewhere as essentially unproven.

Chart segments Mexican imports of pork products (HS 0203) by country of origin.  Source: Panjiva