The Foreign Ministers of Canada (Chrystia Freeland) and Mexico (Luis Videgaray) have confirmed at a conference that they want NAFTA renegotiations to be trilateral in nature, the Wall Street Journal reports. The AS/COA conference was the first meeting between Canadian and Mexican ministers since the U.S. declared the start of its NAFTA consultation period, as outlined in Panjiva research of May 23.

While the talks may structurally be “trilateral” the divergent interests of the three groups are likely to mean that there are a series of two-way discussions. These would be determined by areas of parallel interest. Panjiva’s analysis of the top 50 export lines for each country (using U.S. export and import data and Mexican export data for the 12 months to November 30) shows that outside of autos, energy and power distribution equipment there are few areas of trilateral interest.

In most other areas there are only bilateral concerns. For example Canada and Mexico have a bilateral interest in steel products and plastics, but neither have significant trade with the U.S. Canada and the U.S. already have disputes in aerospace, forestry and dairy products, while Mexico and the U.S. are already in conflict over sugar. More details on negotiating stances, particularly from the U.S. which will only arrive by mid-July under TPA rules, may bring more clarity on where key battlegrounds will be. It should be noted though that negotiations need to be completed by year end to avoid electoral complications in Mexico and the U.S.

CLICK CHART TO SEE HIGH RESOLUTION VERSION. Chart is based on top 50 exports by HS code, for the 12 months to November 30, for the U.S., Canada and Mexico based on U.S. and Mexico data for 2016. Blue represents highest proportion of total exports. Source: Panjiva