EsRail industry executives have warned the Trump administration against terminating NAFTA. Kansas City Southern CEO Pat Ottensmeyer has warned it could disrupt supply chains, cut jobs and “haunt Trump politically”. The threat to the railroads from a termination of NAFTA and a complete border wall with tighter customs protection is one of our black swan risks for 2018. Mexican cross-border rail activity has already entered a decline, with a 4% annual growth rate in shipments 2016 vs. 2013 reversing to a drop of 2% in the past 12 months to November 30.
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