The U.S. Commerce Department has made a preliminary determination that exports of aluminum foil from China received subsidies at rates of 16.6% to 81.0%. A final determination is due by October 23, though it is worth noting that there is a parallel anti-dumping case. A preliminary determination there was postponed to October 4 from August 15, as outlined in Panjiva research of August 1.

Both cases are somewhat complicated in coming against the backdrop of the broader section 232 review of the industry. That itself appears to have lost momentum after a late June / early July expected report was missed.

Chinese exporters are making the most of the slow progress on the case. Panjiva data shows that U.S. imports hit a new high in June, having climbed 25.8% in the second quarter. That was predominantly the result of higher shipments from China, which climbed 28.8% and account for 71.9% of the total, though shipments from Armenia also climbed to 2.6x their prior year level. Average prices have also increased, so the dollar value of total exports to the U.S. increased by 29.9%.

Chart segments U.S. imports of aluminum foil covered by the trade case by country of origin.  Source: Panjiva

That growth looks set to continue, with Chinese exports in June (which will have arrived in the U.S. in July) having climbed a further 35.1%. That has made the U.S. the largest source of growth for Chinese aluminum foil exporters including Dingsheng Aluminum and Jiangsu Zhongji Lamination. In total exports climbed 27.4% in the second quarter, with the U.S. having accounted for 22.2% of all shipments.

Chart segments Chinese exports of aluminum foil by destination market.  Source: Panjiva