Global trade activity set a new record in November after climbing 4.2% on a year earlier, Panjiva analysis of CPB data shows. That brought the trailing 12 month average to 4.29%, the fastest rate of expansion since December 2011. The only region breaking the coordinated growth trend has been Africa and the Middle East which has seen exports contract by 0.5% in the past year, the first decline since December 2013. That makes the completion of the CFTA, as outlined in Panjiva research of December 29, more urgent than ever.

Chart shows index of global trade activity and change vs. a year earlier. Calculations based on CPB World Monitor data. Source: Panjiva

Japanese exports have led the way, with an 6.6% growth outstripping emerging Asia’s 5.3%. Japan’s growth will likely continue as its trade deals with the EU, Mexico and Mercosur come to fruition. Emerging Asia growth in the meantime appears to remain robust in December based on data from China and India. The U.S. has seen a steady expansion in export activity, which in turn has been helped by higher energy exports. Yet, should the Trump administration’s protectionist tendancies draw a reaction from its customer countries that growth could rapidly reverse.

Chart segments index of global trade activity vs. a year earlier on a 12 month annual basis by region. Calculations based on CPB World Monitor data. Source: Panjiva