The U.S. advance trade in goods deficit for January, due to be published on February 28, will bridge the administrations of President Obama and President Trump. It seems unlikely that the data will be restated at the headline level to show exports net of re-exports, as discussed in Panjiva research of February 20.

It will nonetheless likely gain attention given the current President’s preoccupation with deficits as part of trade negotiations. Panjiva data for seaborne imports combined with Bureau of Labor Statistics pricing figures suggest there could be a fourth straight month of import growth. The two combined expanded 9.2% on a year earlier in January after shipments across all ports increased 5.4%.

Calculations include data from Bureau of Labor Statistics and Census Bureau Source: Panjiva

This may be offset, however, by an expansion in exports. Panjiva’s analysis of seaborne export data for five major ports that have published data ( Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Savannah and Charleston) show a 18.7% expansion on a year earlier. Export prices also increased by 2.3%.

The two combined have tended to overestimate the development in exports over the past six months by an average 6.4%, but still suggests the deficit won’t be wholly driven by imports.

Chart shows aggregate change in export container handling by five ports ( Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Savannah and Charleston) combined with Bureau of Labor Statistics pricing and Census Bureau final trade deficit export growth. Source: Panjiva