EsU.S. orange juice imports may need to ramp up significantly. A bacterial infection known as “citrus greening”, combined with hurricane damage, may result in the smallest harvest in Florida since the 1940s, the Wall Street Journal reports. Supply concerns have resulted in a 15.5% rise in orange juice futures prices since June, Bloomberg data shows, though that is 32.4% below levels reached in October 2016 when supply worries previously emerged.
Panjiva data shows that U.S. imports of oranges have already increased this year, rising 22.3% year-to-date when allowing for preliminary seaborne August data. That includes a gain in market share of shipments from Chile (51.3% higher as of July) and Mexico (46.3% above last year’s level at August 31) at the expense of the Dominican Republic (46.3% lower). The latter will also likely be disrupted by the impact of Hurricane Katia, as outlined in Panjiva research of September 26.
Source: Panjiva
In the case of orange juice itself U.S. demand has declined in the year to date through August 31 by 3.7%. Exports from Mexico have actually increased by 24.1%, at the expense of shipments from Brazil and Costa Rica.
As a consequence Mexico suppliers, including Citricola and Procitrus, account for 52.7% of U.S. purchases, up from 46.4% three years ago. On a 12 month trailing average basis Mexican shipments to the U.S. are at a new record. Should the storm season have treated Mexico’s orange fields as badly as Florida’s a genuine shortage is possible.
Source: Panjiva
