2017 is shaping up to be a poor year for smartphone manufacturers. Panjiva data shows U.S. imports of mobile phone handsets fell 19.3% on a year earlier in October. That was the worst year-on-year change since December 2015, and brough the three month average 13.5% lower than the year before.

The slowdown may reflect the phased release of Apple’s iPhones, though November is the peak month for imports historically. There may also be a slowdown going into the new year after Samsung indicated an earlier-than-usual release of its S9 product line, Bloomberg reports. The trailing 12 month total of 234 million handsets is the lowest since July 2014.

Chart shows U.S. imports of mobile phones on a monthly and three / 12 month average basis. Source: Panjiva

On a more positive note the trend of rising import values per handset – a proxy for price – has continued to rise, with an 11.3% rise in the past three months. The single month total of $262 per handset for October is the highest on record after handsets from China climbed 10.7% in the month. The improvement will likely be seen in November too given the higher price point of the iPhone X.

Chart average import value per handset based on total import value and handsets imported. Source: Panjiva

Sadly the pattern of lower demand does not appear to be limited to the U.S. Chinese exports fell 9.5% in October in dollar terms, leaving the total for the past three months 2.2% lower than the year earlier. There was an improvement of 2.9% in exports outside the big three markets (the U.S., the EU and Japan) which may reflect improving sales to emerging markets.

Chart segments Chinese mobile phone exports by destination market. Source: Panjiva

Among the emerging markets specialists Huawei saw a 27.2% rise in shipments in October. Samsung Electronics also did better with a 33.5% improvement, which may also reflect improved sentiment towards its handsets over a year after the its battery problems.

EM producers Huawei +27.2%. Samsung recover +33.5% may reflect broader improvement.

While overall shipments are down, there also appears to have been a significant shift in supply chains. Foxconn, historically Apple’s largest supplier, saw a 33.0% slump in October. It likely lost share within Apple supply chain to Pegatron (which was 9.6% better) and Wistron. The latter accounted for a 5.3% share of all exports, 3.3x the level of a year earlier.

Chart segments Chinese mobile phone exports by shipper parent company. Source: Panjiva

Wistron also responsible for Apple India expansion, though it has reportedly faced problems in securing sales. That can be seen in a slide in handsets from all manufacturers in October with a 36.5% drop vs.  a year earlier. Local production is still increasing though, with imports of components rising 1.3% in October and 24.2% in the past three months. Manufacturers may be anticipating increased import duties from the government, as outlined in Panjiva research of December 11.

Chart compares Indian imports of mobile phones, telecoms network equipment and telecoms components. Source: Panjiva