Global personal computer shipments fell 3.6% on a year earlier in the third quarter, Gartner estimates, with HP Inc. being the only major brand to experience an improvement. Shipments in the U.S. likely fell by 10%, where even HP struggled. That’s borne out in trade data, with HP Inc’s imports having fallen 3.4% on a year earlier, Panjiva data shows, though a 33.1% rise in shipments in August and 1.6% in September suggests a recovery is expected.

Dell may have done better – or perhaps just built up inventories – with its imports having grown by 11.9%. Lenovo meanwhile reduced its imports by 17.8% following significant product releases a year earlier.  

Chart segments U.S. seaborne imports exports of computers segmented by company name, showing a three month rolling total.  Source: Panjiva

Looking globally there is a risk of oversupply. Exports from China increased 21.2% in August vs. a year earlier across all categories in dollar terms. That brought the total for the three months to August 31 (effectively products sold or inventoried for the third quarter) to 27.2% above the year earlier level. Tower-type machines grew the quickest in August with a 39.6% growth, while all-in-one PCs grew by just 3.9%.

Chart segments Chinese exports of computers by type. Lower panel shows change in total  Source: Panjiva

Lenovo also lagged it’s China-based peers, with global exports having fallen by 5.4% on a year earlier in August. It did better than Pegatron, which dropped 10% and lagged Hon Hai’s 18.1% growth – reversing the situation seen in smartphones, as outlined in Panjiva research of October 11. Quanta meanwhile saw the fastest growth with a 42.6% expansion making it the largest exporter of computers from China.

Chart segments Chinese exports of computers by company name, including known subsidiaries. Bubble size indicates total exports in dollars.  Source: Panjiva