The Chairman of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation, Kosei Shindo, has warned the industry needs to watch rising imports from South Korea, Bloomberg (paywall) reports. Panjiva analysis of official data shows that this increased 16.1% on a year earlier in February, while Japanese shipments 8.3%. Historically the concern has focussed on Chinese steel exports, leading to several trade cases from the U.S. and the EU. Panjiva data shows Chinese exports increased by a more modest 3.1 on a year earlier, bringing the quarterly total 2.4% higher. The three countries together increased exports by 8.1% in the past three months on a year earlier, with South Korea accounting for 58% of the increase in dollar terms.

Kosei-san’s comments raise the question as to progress from the Global Forum on Steel Overcapacity. Since its launch in September, as discussed in Panjiva research of September 12, there have been few public pronouncements. Further action from the U.S. shouldn’t be ruled out if the GFSO fails to make progress. Commerce Secretary Ross and USTR nominee Lighthizer have continued to be vocal on the topic of U.S. steel imports. Stricter rules, including self-initiated trade cases, seem to be a likely outcome.

Chart shows change in each country’s steel exports compared to a year earlier, based on official figures for South Korea and Japan, Panjiva data for China (February based on customs data) Source: Panjiva