Container-line Maersk delivered revenues in 3Q 2019 that were 0.9% lower than a year earlier, though that was still 1.1% better than expected by analysts according to S&P Global Market Intelligence figures. That came even after Maersk raised its earnings guidance in October and was similar to Hapag-Lloyd as flagged in Panjiva’s Nov. 13 report.

Yet, unlike Hapag-Lloyd the growth was driven by higher volumes – which rose 2.1% year over year – and lower rates which dropped by 3.6% on average.

Chart segments change in Maersk’s revenues from ocean shipping by driver. Calculations based on company financial data. Source: Panjiva

Notably Maersk’s CEO, Soren Skou has stated that the “negative effects from escalating trade restrictions also weighed on trade growth“, though the principal impact on 3Q is because “we had all of the pre-loading of goods into the U.S. that started in the third quarter because of the tariff“. 

The year-over-year comparator problem can be seen vividly in the start to the fourth quarter, with U.S. seaborne imports associated with Maersk having fallen by 11.3% year over year in October after a 5.2% slide in 3Q, Panjiva data shows.

The decline has been led by a 30.6% slump in shipments from China, which was double the rate seen in 3Q, while shipments from Asia ex-China increased by just 0.8%. The latter suggests that Maersk has lost ground to other shipping lines.

Maersk may have a wider set of competitive issues given shipments from Europe fell by 7.9% in October – though that was slower than then 12.2% slide seen in the prior quarter. Additionally, growth in shipments from Latin America has slowed to just 0.4% after the acquisition of Hamburg Sud in late 2017.

Chart segments U.S. seaborne imports handled by Maersk by port-of-lading region. Source: Panjiva