The Venezuelan government plans to hold a constituent assembly vote this weekend that could greatly increase the power of President Nicolás Maduro, The Economist (paywall) reports. That could lead to “strong and swift sanctions” from from the U.S. according to President Donald Trump, Reuters reported. New sanctions against 13 Venezuelan individuals have already been put in place, though further restrictions cannot be ruled out.

Panjiva data shows U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude oil and refined products would provide the most leverage. These accounted for 65.9% of total U.S. imports from Venezuela in the past 12 months, or $8.9 billion of shipments. Imports of non-energy products have fall already, by 10.0% in the past quarter on a year earlier. Such restrictions would also have a knock-on effect on U.S.-based, but PdVSA-owned refiner Citgo which processes Venezuelan crude.

Chart segments U.S. imports from Venezuela by product type including crude oil, oil products and others. Source: Panjiva

The challenge for the Trump administration in applying a more radical sanctions package will be to mitigate the negative impact on the Venezuelan population more broadly. Food imports have suffered already, CNN reports. which may reflect the government prioritizing interest payments over CLAP (military-regulated) food imports.

Panjiva analysis of food exports to Venezuela from Brazil, Colombia and Mexico shows shipments in May were 67.1% lower than a year earlier. They also dropped 37.3% sequentially, with the result that imports hit their lowest since January 2015 and hence the second lowest since in over a decade.

Data for top five food import lines from Brazil, Colombia and Mexico.Source: Panjiva