U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has called for an early general election on June 8 – under current legislation one was not necessary until 2020. Arguably the move may be to improve the ruling Conservative Party’s majority in government to pass post-Brexit legislation. While the most recent polling shows the Conservative Party is well ahead of the Labour Party, there is a risk that the election becomes a “referendum on the referendum”. If nothing else it may delay the day-to-day business of negotiations.

This adds a further complication to the process of negotiating the Brexit process, that had already faced the uncertainties of national elections in other countries. Panjiva analysis of official figures shows that countries accounting for a total of 52.8% of British trade will have elections before the formal Brexit date at the end of March 2019. Four of those countries (including Germany) have trade surpluses with the U.K. that are worth more than 1% of their GDP and so may see Brexit negotiations being a part of their electioneering process.

Short term business sentiment towards exports has been improving, as outlined in Panjiva research of March 23. That’s the result of a weaker pound helping competitiveness while increased trade barriers lay further ahead.

Vertical axis denotes total trade with the U.K. for the 12 months to January 31, based on U.K. ONS data. Horizontal axis shows date of next general election. Purple-labelled countries have elections before March 2019 and a trade surplus with the U.K. worth more than 1% of GDP.Source: Panjiva