The British Prime Minister, Theresa May, has informed the European Council that it will trigger the ‘Article 50’ clause of the European Treaties to start the process of leaving the European (aka ‘Brexit) on March 29, the Guardian reports. Donald Tusk, the EU Council President, has said he will present draft guidelines to the member states within two days and hold a summit on April 29. That will allow chief negotiator Michel Barnier to start formal discussions.

The U.K. has already set out its starting point, as discussed in Panjiva research of February 2, that it wants to continue with existing trade measures rather than start from scratch. In that regards it faces a disparate set of European member states trade positions. Yet, one of the biggest challenges will come from the multilateral approval required for the eventual agreement, which bedevilled the CETA deal with Canada. This will require agreement from national governments, many of whom may be different from today.

Panjiva analysis of U.K. trade statistics and proposed election dates shows countries equivalent to 52.7% of total EU trade with the U.K. will have general elections before the formal date the U.K. is scheduled to leave the EU. Two of the largest – France and Germany, accounting for 36.5% – have elections in the next six months. The reality may be that substantive talks may not be possible until late 2017. Furthermore, the EU Parliament, which must also ratify the deal, is due to have elections in May 2019. Put another, Brexit terms may be as much a function of EU intra-national politics as international negotiations.

Vertical axis denotes total trade with the U.K. for the 12 months to January 31, based on U.K. ONS data. Horizontal axis shows date of next general election. Source: Panjiva