Supply Chain Research

The recent inversion of the U.S. treasury yield curve is a sign of recession, though the indications from trade data have been negative for several months. Exports from the European Union fell by 7.6% in dollar terms in June, including an 11.0% drop in shipments from Germany. When added to data from 30 other countries that means there was a 5.2% drop in global exports in June, bringing the 2Q total to 2.2% from 1.5% in 1Q. Arguably the global export economy is already in a recession, with data for July so far also being somewhat discouraging. Much depends on the impact of the U.S. decisi...