The global economy may be close to a “trade recession”, defined as two consecutive three month periods of lower exports on a year over year basis globally. The most recent trade recession started in May 2015 and did not end until Nov. 2016 with the subsequent boom driven in party by reflationary U.S. tax policies. Global exports fell 2.3% year over year in the three months to Feb. 28 and are down 2.6% in the three months to Apr. 30. Data for May already shows seven of 11 countries having reported lower exports. Previous trade recessions have typically started in Europe – exports from whi...