EsVenezuela’s international trade likely took another step back in October, Panjiva analysis of data from five counterpart countries shows. While imports from the U.S., China, Mexico, Brazil and Colombia climbed 22.3% on a month earlier, the figure is partly seasonal and was down 37.2% on a year earlier.
This month-on-month climb was accounted for by a 102% increase in shipments from Mexico, relating mostly to PC and TV sales by Samsung Electronics and IBM.
By contrast total exports dropped 38.7% vs. September, and 45.9% on a year earlier to reach their lowest level since February at $1.02 billion.
Source: Panjiva
The drop in exports is largely explained by a reduction in oil sales to both the United States and China. The total value of exports to the two countries fell 39.5% vs. the previous month to $812 million – the lowest since February 2016. This came despite a 10.9% increase in the PdVSA’s oil basket price. It would suggest export volumes, and possibly production, fell by as much as 50.4% in volume terms. That was the largest implied monthly volume change since February 2015.
November could see a reduction in export revenues given the basket price fell 7.4%. While December has brought a 13.3% recovery in prices, the country also committed to a 5% production cut under the recent OPEC deal according to the Wall Street Journal.
Source: Panjiva
Electronics imports may be doing fine, but food imports are not. While imports from Colombia, Brazil and Mexico were 39.4% higher than they were a year ago in October, they were 11.6% lower than in September (the second monthly decline). This was mostly the result of a 22.1% drop in shipments from Colombia, which may not recover near term given the border will remain closed through January 2 The Guardian reports.
Source: Panjiva
