EsNationwide protests in Venezuela, reported by CNN, are the result of the cancellation of a Presidential referendum, and follow a significant economic recession. Venezuelan trade with its five of its largest partners (the U.S., China, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico) had been improving month on month over the summer, Panjiva analysis shows.
Exports had increased for five straight months through July, but dropped 16.6% in August on a month over month basis. Imports had struggled to grow, and after a 7.5% recovery in July they fell 9.5% in August. In any event, exports were still 26.7% lower and imports 47.1% lower than a year earlier.
Source: Panjiva
Among Venezuela’s largest export earnings lines are crude oil and related products sent to the United States and to China by Petroleos de Venezuela (PdVSA). The collapse in the oil price, measured by PdVSA’s oil basket price, resulted in a $3 billion per month drop in oil and product export revenues by February 2016 vs. April 2014. A subsequent 63.6% recovery in the oil price by the end of August led to a 124% recovery in exports from lows, but were 5.7% lower than July levels. The rate of supply implied by value less price changes fell 21% in August vs. July after increasing for three straight months.
Source: Panjiva
The major area of concern remains food imports. These appear to have increased, but are still very low. Imports of meat, cereals and sugar from Brazil, Colombia and Mexico increased 169% in August compared to April’s lows and 76% vs. a year earlier. This was partly driven by the reopening of the border with Colombia, though trade relations with its Mercosur partners remain fractious. Yet, imports are still 69% below August 2014 levels.
Source: Panjiva
