The global coffee trade took another step backwards in October. Global exports fell 10.4% on a year earlier, Panjiva analysis of ICO data shows, following an 11.0% drop in the prior month. Brazil continued its prolonged slide with a 10.4% drop making the 10th sequential drop. As well as lower bean exports, that’s also being seen in coffee products where industry association ABICS sees a 13% drop in exports in 2017 to a level not seen since 2010.

Brazil’s drop came  alongside Vietnam which dropped for a fourth month by 25.7%. Colombia experienced a turnaround, falling 8.6% after 10.0% growth a month earlier. India meanwhile grew by just 3.5% after three months of double-digit growth.  

Chart segments year-over-year change in global coffee exports by country of origin. Calculations based on ICO data.  Source: Panjiva

The drop in availability has left U.S. importers including JM Smucker’s Folger in a sticky situation. U.S. imports of coffee fell 21.4% in October and by as much as 10.0% in November based on preliminary data. That’s resulted in year-to-date imports rising by just 0.1% vs. the prior year. With imports of tea also having fallen 2.6% over the same period it’s likely that the coffee retailers have had to rely on the sale of higher margin products to maintain revenue and profit growth.

Chart compares U.S. imports of coffee (blue line) and tea (orange line). Last two months based on seaborne imports only.  Source: Panjiva