Freight forwarder Eternity Mexico has stated that imports from Asia are “not seeing a strong peak season“, Journal of Commerce reports company President Nicolas Portenza, and indeed that “this is one of the worst peak seasons in the past four years.“

Panjiva data shows that Mexican maritime imports of containerized freight from Asia typically peak in July and August with a secondary peak in October. Figures for 2018 also showed a peak in November, though that may have reflected rushed onward shipping to the U.S. ahead of U.S. tariff increases on Chinese exports that may be routed via Mexico  

Chart segments Mexican imports of containerized freight from Asia by month.  Source: Panjiva

 Indeed, Mexican imports from China are already down 12.4% year over year in July after an 8.9% increase in the second quarter and a 15.6% improvement in 1Q. That’s only partly offset by increased shipments from the rest of Asia which increased by 2.6% in July.

The drop in imports from China likely relates to increased duties on products reshipped to the U.S. from China under the “first sale” rule as outlined in Panjiva research of Jul. 8. The increase in duties in August and widening of coverage in September and December may mean more of the same lies ahead.

Chart segments change in Mexican seaborne imports of containerized freight by origin.  Source: Panjiva

 Among major importers to Mexico from China, Samsung Electronics is an example of the reversal in fortunes with a 33.9% drop in imports associated with the company in July following a 78.3% increase in 2Q. Its competitor Sony may be making a more aggressive use of first sale given its imports in July rose 15.9% after a 35.3% increase in 2Q.

Outside technology however other sectors are seeing a more established downturn. For example imports associated with Nissan halved in July after a 16.2% slide in 2Q.

Chart compares Mexican seaborne imports of containerized freight by Samsung Electronics, Sony and Nissan.  Source: Panjiva