Supply Chain Research

The success of President Trump’s trade policies in cutting the trade-in-goods deficit may be short-lived after the advance report rose by 5% on a year earlier in June. The 1% reduction in May was the first decline since September 2016. While the rate of growth in exports (11%) outpaced imports (9%) as expected the latter outnumbers the former by 1.5x. A 47% rise in the oil price has been the main culprit for renewed growth in the deficit. Excluding energy shows the deficit likely fell 2%. A rush of imports in capital equipment (8%) and consumer goods (9%) may be linked to a desire to bea...