EsAgriculture is likely to be a major part of forthcoming NAFTA negotiations. The Mexican government has already indicated that it is aggressively pursuing new customers for its produce, as discussed in Panjiva research of March 17. There is already some evidence of this in recent sugar export figures.
Other areas have not done as well. Exports of avocados increased 41.5% in the first quarter, Panjiva data shows. However, this is in large part due to a jump in world prices, flagged by the Financial Times. Excluding this volumes fell 10.6% over the same period after a protracted period of growth that saw volumes in the past year rise 57.5% vs. three years ago. Shipments of tequila meanwhile fell 5.3% in the first quarter after growing 20% over the past three years.
The reliance on the U.S. as a source of growth has been evident for some time. Shipments of both avocados and tequila have two peaks during the year. The first is around March and April ahead of the Cinco de Mayo celebrations driven by tequila. The second comes around the peak avocado season in September. Diversification in both is needed ahead of NAFTA negotiations. Shipments of avocados and tequila combined to the U.S. increased 35.7% in the first quarter, with rest of world shipments falling 14.5%. Global marketing of the Cinco de Mayo festivities by producers ranging from Jose Cuervo to Mission de Mexico would help.
Source: Panjiva
