Supply Chain Research

The potential for administrative disruptions on the U.S.-Mexico border resulting from proposed across-the-board tariffs may lead companies to use seaborne rather than truck shipping. Yet, the CEO of Maersk’s SeaLand division, Craig Mygatt, has stated that so far “very little has actually switched over” as “changing modes of transport seems to be very difficult” according to Journal of Commerce.

Panjiva data shows that road transport of Mexican exports to the U.S. accounted for 70.6% of the total in the 12 months to Apr. 30, compared to 9.3% for marine shipping. There’s been significantly faster growth in marine shipping though with a 30.0% year over year expansion compared to 9.7% for trucking.

That may reflect earlier, and ongoing, disruptions to cross-border freight due to a shortage of customs agents as flagged in Panjiva’s research of Apr. 3.

Chart segments Mexican exports to the U.S. by transportation mode ( truck versus sea) on a monthly and 12-month average basis.  Source: Panjiva

An extended period of disruptions may lead more U.S. importers from Mexico to northern U.S. states to consider marine freight as an option. The market for such services could cover freight shipments worth $20.2 billion in the 12 months to Apr. 30, which expanded by 13.8% year over year.

The largest users of such services cover a variety of sectors and are led by Johnson Controls with $701 million of shipments alongside Rockwell Collins with $342 million and Colgate Palmolive with $271 million.

Chart segments Mexican exports by road to northerly U.S. states by consignee on a monthly and three-month average basis for Johnson Controls, Rockwell Collins and Colgate Palmolive.  Source: Panjiva